SUMMARY

  • Trump has been found guilty and will be sentenced on July 11, 2024. For now, he can still run for the presidency of the United States. At the moment, the gold price corrects -0.10% and trades at $2,340 per troy ounce.
  • German retail sales are expected to fall -0.2% month-on-month. French CPI is expected to rise 0.1% in May. The country’s GDP is expected to grow +1.1% y/y.
  • Former President Trump has been found guilty of all 34 charges against him. This adds spice to the US presidential race.

 

KEY EVENTS:

  • German retail sales
  • CPI in France
  • GDP in France
  • Eurozone CPI
  • US CPI
  • GDP in Canada

GOLD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 100
  • Margin requirement: USD$2167
  • Example: movement of USD$10 = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 2340.80
  • Support 2: 2338.95
  • Resistance 1: 2346.15
  • Resistance 2: 2349.65

Fundamental Analysis

  • Trump has been found guilty and will be sentenced on July 11, 2024. For now, he can still run for the presidency of the United States. At the moment, the gold price is correcting -0.10% and is trading at $2,340 per troy ounce.
  • The Spanish CPI came in at 3.6%, 1 basis point above forecasts, but 3 basis points above the previous month’s result. The euro zone unemployment rate stood at 6.4%.
  • U.S. GDP grew by 1.3% in 1Q2024, while the market expected growth of 1.6%. New claims for unemployment benefits in the country totaled 219,000, compared to 218,000 expected.
  • The U.S. PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, is expected to rise 2.7% year-over-year.

EURUSD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$542
  • Example: 100 pips change in EURUSD price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 1.0807
  • Support 2: 1.0803
  • Resistance 1: 1.0819
  • Resistance 2: 1.0827

Fundamental Analysis

  • German retail sales are expected to fall -0.2% month-on-month. French CPI is expected to increase 0.1% in May. The country’s GDP is expected to grow by +1.1% y/y. EURUSD is currently correcting -0.15% and trades at 1.0816.
  • Eurozone CPI is expected to come in at 2.5% y/y, indicating that the ECB may confirm its change in monetary policy strategy. In other words, it could start by cutting interest rates. In this scenario, the volume of investment in the continent would increase significantly, as the cost of capital for investment would fall.
  • Net speculative positions in the euro would stand at 41,500 long contracts.
  • EURUSD is below the 200-day moving average and is looking to approach the lower Bollinger band. Immediate support is at 1.0804. The RSI and moving averages indicate a massive sell-off.

DOW JONES

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 1
  • Margin requirement: USD$195
  • Example: movement of 100 points= $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 38160
  • Support 2: 38145
  • Resistance 1: 38196
  • Resistance 2: 38217

Fundamental Analysis

  • Former President Trump has been found guilty of all 34 charges against him. The judge in charge of the case will hand down his sentence on July 11. This adds spice to the race for the US presidency. Traders expect increased volatility in stock indexes as a result of the Trump affair.
  • The Biden administration announced that it was allowing Ukraine to attack targets in Russia using U.S.-made weapons.
  • A large number of Wall Street billionaires support Trump. So we don’t expect the sentence to be that harsh.
  • At the moment, the Dow Jones is down -0.10% at 38,193 points. The price remains near the lower Bollinger band, which could trigger a rebound. The RSI is at 37, near the oversold zone, which could trigger a trend reversal.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

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