SUMMARY

  • UK CPI came in at 2.3% y-o-y, a surprising improvement from 3.2% in the previous report.
  • Traders long the currency are watching for resistance at 157. At the moment, the USDJPY is in the pivot point zone.
  • The EIA warned the market that the hurricane season in the US could affect oil and gas supply.
  • Nvidia’s results beat market expectations. The stock is up 6% in after-market trading.

 

Main events:

  • Singapore CPI
  • French manufacturing PMI
  • French services PMI
  • German manufacturing PMI
  • German services PMI
  • Euro zone manufacturing PMI
  • Euro zone services PMI
  • UK manufacturing PMI
  • UK services PMI
  • U.S. unemployment claims
  • U.S. manufacturing PMI
  • US services PMI
  • Japanese CPI

GOLD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 100
  • Margin requirement: USD$2167
  • Example: movement of USD$10 = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 2365.98
  • Support 2: 2358.83
  • Resistance 1: 2381.11
  • Resistance 2: 2389.09

Fundamental Analysis

  • UK CPI came in at 2.3% year-on-year, a surprising improvement from 3.2% in the previous report. This means that the Bank of England could be very close to a rate cut at its June 2024 meeting.
  • Today we will have PMI reports from around the world. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 46.2 and the services PMI at 53.6. In the UK, the composite PMI is expected at 54 and the services PMI at 54.7. In the United States, the manufacturing PMI is expected at 50 and the services PMI at 51.2.
  • David Salomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, does not expect the Fed to cut rates before 2024.
  • Nvidia has beaten market expectations, generating a $140 billion rally.
  • The gold price has crossed the 200-day moving average line to the downside, indicating more short positions. The price is in the pivot point zone.

USDJPY

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$499
  • Example: 100 pips change in USDJPY price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 156.69
  • Support 2: 156.63
  • Resistance 1: 156.86
  • Resistance 2: 156.97

Fundamental Analysis

  • Traders with long positions in the currency are watching the resistance at 157. At the moment, the USDJPY is in the pivot point zone.
  • The minutes of the last Fed meeting point to a possible interest rate hike if inflation continues to rise.
  • Japan’s services PMI came in at 53.6, remaining in the expansion zone.
  • Japan’s core CPI is expected to come in at 2.2%, very close to the 2% annual target.
  • For the time being, the Bank of Japan maintains its bond purchases.
  • USDJPY continues to rise. Yesterday, the currency rose +0.40%. At the moment, it is moving sideways above the 156.75 area. The price remains above its 200-day moving average. The currency is looking to reach 157.50. Possible rebound to 158. Level to watch at 160 to evaluate a scenario of intervention by the Bank of Japan.

WTI

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 1,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$794
  • Example: movement of USD$1 = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 76,96
  • Support 2: 76,87
  • Resistance 1: 77,10
  • Resistance 2: 77,15

Fundamental Analysis

  • The EIA warned the market that the hurricane season in the United States could affect oil and gas supply.
  • Third consecutive day of negative closing for WTI. Yesterday it closed down -2.13%, due to an increase in U.S. crude inventories of 1.8 million barrels. Crude inventories at Cushing increased by 1.3 million barrels.
  • The WTI price is below the 200-day moving average as well as the lower Bollinger band, which could trigger a rebound towards the $78 area.
  • Concerns about demand behavior and prolonged high interest rates are putting downward pressure on WTI.
  • Analysts believe that the price could resume its uptrend at any time due to rising geopolitical tensions.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

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