SUMMARY

  • The price of gold continues to rise as investors try to mitigate the risk of volatility in their portfolios. On Friday, the price rose by 1.56%.
  • USD/JPY closed last week with a gain of +0.16%. The currency is currently trading at 155.65. Inflationary pressure in the United States is easing, but the consumer price index is not falling at the expected pace.
  • As a result of good macroeconomic data in the US economy, mainly inflation, the gold price is very close to reaching the $80 per barrel zone again.

 

Key events:

  • Bank of England monetary policy statement.
  • FOMC delegates’ statements

GOLD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 100
  • Margin requirement: USD$2167
  • Example: movement of USD$10 = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 2412.8
  • Support 2: 2409.05
  • Resistance 1: 2419.1
  • Resistance 2: 2421.65

Fundamental Analysis

  • The price of gold continues to rise as investors try to mitigate the risk of volatility in their portfolios. On Friday, the price rose by 1.56%. The metal is currently trading at $2,414 per troy ounce.
  • Traders are awaiting monetary policy statements from the Bank of England, especially if they indicate any hint of an interest rate cut.
  • They are also awaiting statements from FOMC delegates, who will present their analysis of U.S. inflation.
  • The G7 countries are meeting in Italy to discuss inflation in the seven countries and the possible scenario of an interest rate cut in June 2024.
  • U.S. banks have warned against increasing their exposure to mortgage lending in the country.

USDJPY

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$499
  • Example: 100 pips change in USDJPY price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 155.62
  • Support 2: 155.56
  • Resistance 1: 155.74
  • Resistance 2: 155.81

Fundamental Analysis

  • The USD/JPY ended last week with a gain of +0.16%. The currency is currently trading at 155.65. Inflationary pressure in the US is easing, but the consumer price index is not falling at the expected pace.
  • The president of the Bank of Japan made a statement to the Japanese parliament on monetary policy. Investors maintained their current positions in USDJPY, so the currency remained sideways at 155.64.
  • The price is at the same level as the 200-day moving average. The price is in the middle between the two Bollinger bands, which confirms the sideways trend. However, the price remains close to the resistance zone. Analysts are pricing in the BoJ’s interest to intervene in the market at the current level, or when the price reaches 160 again.
  • For the time being, the BoJ is maintaining its bond purchases.

WTI

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 1,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$794
  • Example: movement of USD$1 = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 79,94
  • Support 2: 79,88
  • Resistance 1: 80,10
  • Resistance 2: 80,20

Fundamental Analysis

  • As a result of good macroeconomic data in the US economy, especially inflation, the price of gold is very close to reaching the $80 per barrel zone again.
  • Commodities in general remain under upward pressure due to physical trade bottlenecks in the Red Sea caused by rising geopolitical tensions.
  • The level of strategic oil stocks in the United States remains low as the government has not yet fully bought into the market due to the rapid rise in crude oil prices.
  • The WTI price is above the 200-day moving average and is looking to reach the upper Bollinger band and thus overcome resistance at USD 80. If the price breaks above this zone, the way is clear to reach USD 90 a barrel.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

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