SUMMARY

  • 79% of the companies in the S&P500 outperformed market expectations, indicating that US activity is picking up, which is positive for the economy.
  • Falling US Treasury yields put pressure on the USD and consequently on the CHF. As a result, the USDCHF continues to fall a few points above the area near the 0.9059 support.
  • The rise in NYSE-listed stocks could resume, driven by good corporate results. The only turning point would be the US inflation result.

 

Key events:

  • European Union economic forecasts.
  • Eurogroup meeting
  • India annual CPI
  • Canadian building permits

GOLD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 100
  • Margin requirement: USD$2167
  • Example: movement of USD$10 = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 2361.33
  • Support 2: 2359.22
  • Resistance 1: 2366.54
  • Resistance 2: 2369.64

Fundamental Analysis

  • 79% of the companies that make up the S&P500 outperformed market expectations, indicating that activity in the United States is picking up, which is positive for the economy. The gold price started the week up +0.61%, trading at USD 2,360 per ounce.
  • Technology companies have declared one of the highest dividends in recent years, so the uncertainty associated with the poor results of major technology companies is behind us.
  • This week, the most important data for the market is the Fed inflation report. If it improves on the previous result, we could see a rate cut by the end of the year. If not, we could see a change in monetary policy as early as 2025.
  • The price of gold is above its 200-day moving average, confirming buyers’ interest in hedging their portfolios in the face of this week’s volatility.

USDCHF

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$499
  • Example: 100 pips change in USDCHF price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 0.9060
  • Support 2: 0.9057
  • Resistance 1: 0.9064
  • Resistance 2: 0.9067

Fundamental Analysis

  • Falling US Treasury yields are pressuring the USD and consequently the CHF. As a result, the USDCHF continues to fall a few points above the area near the 0.9059 support.
  • The Swiss central bank was the first in the world to cut interest rates this year, from 1.75% to 1.50%. So far, the move has had a good effect and the country’s economy is growing. According to the March 2024 report, inflation in Switzerland is down -0.2% month-on-month and stands at 1% year-on-year.
  • One of the country’s advantages is that it has managed to maintain its energy independence through hydrogen production and nuclear power plants, which has reduced energy imports.
  • Analysts expect the Swiss National Bank to cut rates again at its June 2024 meeting.

NASDAQ 100

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 1
  • Margin requirement: USD$181
  • Example: movement of 100 points = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 18239.25
  • Support 2: 18239.25
  • Resistance 1: 18239.25
  • Resistance 2: 18239.25

Fundamental Analysis

  • The rise in stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange could resume, driven by good corporate results. The only turning point would be the US inflation result.
  • The Nasdaq 100 managed to regain the 18,239-point level and long-term traders are focusing on the 18,600-point level.
  • The index remains in a resistance zone above the 200-day moving average, indicating an increase in long positions.
  • Long positions in cryptocurrencies are also increasing. The market may be anticipating a drop in U.S. inflation, which would be beneficial for investors.
  • Traders are keeping an eye on this week’s political agenda in the US, which includes several topics, such as increased funding for Ukraine and Israel, Trump and the election.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

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