SUMMARY

  • The European Central Bank has kept interest rates at 4.50%. At the press conference, Christine Lagarde announced that the start of the interest rate cut depended on inflation falling below 2%.
  • Oil majors’ profits fell 30% compared to 2022.
  • Second consecutive positive closing day for the S&P500. Yesterday, the index closed up +0.99%. Currently, the uptrend is still in force, up 0.10% and trading at 5162 points.

GOLD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 50
  • Units: 100
  • Margin requirement: USD$4161
  • Example: movement of USD$10 = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 2154,16
  • Support 2: 2152,9
  • Resistance 1: 2157,58
  • Resistance 2: 5159,74

Fundamental Analysis

  • The European Central Bank has kept interest rates at 4.50%. At the press conference, Christine Lagarde announced that the start of the interest rate cut would depend on inflation falling below 2%.
  • In the United States, jobless claims came in at 217,000, in line with market expectations. At the press conference, Jerome Powell said that the Fed was about to start cutting rates, which made the market optimistic.
  • Traders are looking ahead to the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls. At least 198,000 new jobs are expected to be created. The previous month’s result was +353,000.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to come in at 3.7%.
  • Gold continues its upward trend. Traders may be anticipating a lower than expected NFP result.

WTI

Specifications

  • Leverage: 50
  • Units: 1.000
  • Margin requirement: USD$1,519
  • Example: USD$1 change in WTI price = USD1000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 79,32
  • Support 2: 79,23
  • Resistance 1: 79,46
  • Resistance 2: 79,51

Fundamental Analysis

  • Profits of oil and gas majors have fallen by 30%.
  • Chinese oil imports rose 5% in January-February 2024, indicating that the country’s demand is increasing.
  • According to analysts at Standard Chartered, OPEC+’s further cuts strategy is bullish for the market.
  • The Kuwaiti government, for its part, analyzes the scenario of rising demand, resulting from a balanced market adjustment.
  • Equity market developments in 2022. However, current figures remain broadly bullish as the Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates soon.
  • Trump won the elections in Texas and California.
  • WTI is above the 40-day moving average and is looking to break above the upper Bollinger band to regain $80 a barrel.

S&P500

Specifications

  • Leverage: 50
  • Units: 1
  • Margin requirement: USD$102
  • Example: movement of 100 points = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 5154,5
  • Support 2: 5151
  • Resistance 1: 5160
  • Resistance 2: 5162

Fundamental Analysis

  • Second consecutive positive closing day for the S&P500. Yesterday, the index closed up 0.99%. At the moment, the uptrend is still in place, with the index up 0.10% and trading at 5162 points. The index is at all-time highs.
  • Traders know that if NFP is better than expected, Wall Street indices will continue to rise.
  • For the moment, the US labor market is doing well, with steady job creation and a low unemployment rate.
  • The Fed looks at all macroeconomic indicators, but focuses on the labor market, inflation and demand, which are key elements in interest rate decisions.
  • The index is above the 40-day moving average, following the bullish gap. The next target for the bulls is 5280 points.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

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