SUMMARY

  • Oil demand forecasts have been reduced by 1 million barrels per day, mainly due to the economic slowdown in the G10.
  • The 12-month bond price is currently up +0.33%, and the PCE price index indicator meets market expectations by registering +2.4%.
  • Significant rebound in the USDCHF, which closed yesterday with a gain of +0.66%, marking the second positive close of the day. The currency is currently up +0.03% at 0.8846.

WTI

Specifications

  • Leverage: 50
  • Units: 1.000
  • Margin requirement: USD$1,519
  • Example: USD$1 change in WTI price = USD1000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 78,44
  • Support 2: 78,38
  • Resistance 1: 78,56
  • Resistance 2: 78,62

Fundamental Analysis

  • Oil demand forecasts have been reduced by 1 million barrels per day, mainly due to the economic slowdown in the G10. The WTI price is currently up +0.28% and stands at USD 78.48 per barrel.
  • Kuwait’s new refinery is generating increased fuel exports from the country.
  • Analysts believe that crude oil prices will remain near USD 80 per barrel throughout the year.
  • Egypt has signed a US$35 billion development agreement with the United Arab Emirates.
  • WTI continues its upward trend. The price remains above the 40-day moving average, looking to accelerate towards resistance. The first level to overcome is 80.72 USD.
  • Analysts do not rule out a rise towards USD 90 as global geopolitical tensions increase.

Dow Jones

Specifications

  • Leverage: 50
  • Units: 1
  • Margin requirement: USD$782
  • Example: movement of 100 points = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 39.056
  • Support 2: 39.050
  • Resistance 1: 39.074
  • Resistance 2: 39.086

Fundamental Analysis

  • The price of the 12-month bond is currently up +0.33%, and the PCE price index indicator meets market expectations by registering +2.4%.
  • The PCE index is a closely watched indicator by the Fed, as it reflects inflation. The previous month’s result was +2.6%, confirming the good result after the 2 basis point cut.
  • Analysts maintain a 97.5% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged for the March 2024 meeting.
  • For the June meeting, the probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points is 64.4%.
  • U.S. jobless claims rose to 215,000, up from 209,000 expected and 202,000 in the previous report, indicating an economic slowdown.

USDCHF

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$999
  • Example: movement of 100 pips = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 0,8842
  • Support 2: 0,8840
  • Resistance 1: 0,8846
  • Resistance 2: 0,8848

Fundamental Analysis

  • Significant rebound in the USDCHF, which closed yesterday with a gain of +0.66%, the second positive close of the day. Currently, the currency is up +0.03% and stands at 0.8846.
  • Sandoz has agreed to pay the US plaintiffs USD 265 million to settle the litigation.
  • Bulls target to consolidate at 0.8800. Analysts know that the Fed will keep interest rates in the 5.25% to 5.50% range at least until the June 2024 meeting, when there is a 64% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points.
  • Analysts also believe that the Swiss National Bank will be one of the first central banks in the world to start cutting interest rates, as the inflation target has been met and the country is performing well economically.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

Risk Disclaimer

Any information/article/material/content provided in this document is intended to be used for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or consultation on how the client should trade.

While the authors have ensured that the content of such information is accurate, they are not responsible for any omissions/errors/miscalculations and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any material or any information contained therein.

Therefore, any reliance you place on such material is strictly at your own risk. Please note that the responsibility for using or relying on such material rests with the customer and the company accepts no liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.