SUMMARY

  • Following the ECB’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, the gold price also rose rapidly, by +0.94%, after correcting a few points to USD 2,370.
  • The Halifax index of UK house prices is expected to rise by +1.2% y-o-y. The UK mortgage rate is expected to increase to 7.92%.
  • Rating agency Moody’s is expected to downgrade the credit ratings of six US commercial banks in the coming hours due to their high exposure to the real estate sector.

 

Key events:

  • German industrial production
  • German trade balance
  • Eurozone GDP
  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP)
  • U.S. unemployment rate
  • Canadian unemployment rate

GOLD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 100
  • Margin requirement: USD$2167
  • Example: movement of USD$10 = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 2371.42
  • Support 2: 2366.13
  • Resistance 1: 2380.13
  • Resistance 2: 2383.55

Fundamental Analysis

  • Following the ECB’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, the gold price also rose rapidly by +0.94%, after correcting a few points to USD 2,370. Currently, the metal is up +0.06% and is trading at USD 2,377 per troy ounce.
  • Traders focus on US NFP, which is expected to add 186K new nonfarm payrolls. The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls report failed to beat expectations, so the NFP result could surprise or trigger a market correction later in the week.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to come in at 3.9%. In Canada, the unemployment rate is expected at 6.2%. Traders are eagerly awaiting Lagarde’s press conference as ECB president.
  • The gold price is looking for new resistance, trying to reach the 2,400 USD level. The RSI is at 65, neutral for the moment.

GBPJPY

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$637
  • Example: 100 pips change in GBPJPY price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 199,15
  • Support 2: 199,03
  • Resistance 1: 199,36
  • Resistance 2: 199,45

Fundamental Analysis

  • The Halifax UK house price index is expected to increase by +1.2% year-over-year. The UK mortgage rate is expected to increase to 7.92%. Net speculative GBP positions are expected to stand at 25.4K long contracts.
  • GBPJPY is currently up +0.09% at 199.23.
  • Net speculative positions in JPY are expected to be -156K contracts short.
  • Chinese exports have exceeded market expectations, generating a rebound in the Asian economy. Chinese investment in Europe is declining due to increased tariffs on electric vehicles produced in the Asian country.
  • Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and Mitsui want to sell part of their $8.5 billion stake in Toyota.
  • The currency is clinging to the 199.21 support. The RSI remains neutral at 48.

NASDAQ 100

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 1
  • Margin requirement: USD$93
  • Example: movement of 100 points= $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 19081.16
  • Support 2: 19075.33
  • Resistance 1: 19090.41
  • Resistance 2: 19093.83

Fundamental Analysis

  • Moody’s is expected to downgrade the credit ratings of six U.S. commercial banks in the coming hours due to their heavy exposure to the real estate sector.
  • Traders are keeping a close eye on Nvidia shares. The company’s shares are up 10.16% this week.
  • Top gainers yesterday were Illumina +7.42%, PayPal +5.49% and Lulemon +4.79%. Top losers were Old Dominion -3.34%, Constellation Energy -3.22% and ON Semiconductor -2.80%.
  • Other interesting movements were Uber +4.69% due to its electric transportation strategy, and Tesla +1.68%, due to the successful launch of the Starship space rockets.
  • The index managed to hold at 19,081 points. The RSI fell quickly after reaching the overbought zone.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

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