SUMMARY

  • First presidential debate in the United States, between Donald Trump as Republican candidate and Joe Biden as incumbent president and representative of the Democrats.
  • British GDP is expected to grow by 0.2% year-on-year. Business investment is expected to have increased by +0.9% in Q1 2024. GBPUSD is correcting -0.04% and trades at 1.2632.
  • USD/JPY has started to lose interest in long positions as traders fear intervention from the Bank of Japan. Yesterday, the currency closed down -0.03%.

 

KEY EVENTS:

  • UK GDP
  • German retail sales French CPI
  • Spanish CPI
  • German unemployment rate Eurogroup meeting
  • U.S. core personal consumption expenditure
  • Canadian GDP
  • Fed monetary policy report

EURUSD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$539
  • Example: 100 pips change in EURUSD price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 1.0685
  • Support 2: 1.0679
  • Resistance 1: 1.0698
  • Resistance 2: 1.0705

Fundamental Analysis

  • First presidential debate in the United States, between Donald Trump as Republican candidate and Joe Biden as incumbent president and representative of the Democrats. According to analysts, Donald Trump won the debate by 67%.
  • EURUSD suffered a correction of -0.07% during the debate. It is currently trading at 1.0694. The currency is in a support zone, looking to stay above support 1. The RSI is at 44.42, in the neutral zone, so the price could continue to correct some positions. The moving averages indicate a massive sell-off.
  • According to ECB officials, the bank is considering further rate cuts in the second half of the year.
  • On the other hand, CME Group’s FedWatch estimates a 93% probability that the Fed will cut rates before the December 2024 meeting.
  • The U.S. PCE index is expected to rise by 2.6% y/y.

GBPUSD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$686
  • Example: 100 pips change in GBPUSD price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 1.2628
  • Support 2: 1.2620
  • Resistance 1: 1.2640
  • Resistance 2: 1.2646

Fundamental Analysis

  • UK GDP is forecast to grow by +0.2% year-on-year. Business investment is expected to have increased by +0.9% in Q1 2024. Currently, GBPUSD is down -0.04% at 1.2632.
  • Traders are evaluating their positions in the currency as they await the US ECP results and developments in the UK election.
  • In the UK, the number of contributors is expected to exceed 1 million. Bank of England warns of rising mortgage rates.
  • Analysts believe that the British government should stimulate business innovation.
  • The currency is just above the support of 1.2621. The RSI is at 45.24, in the neutral zone, so it could correct a few more points, at least to support 1.

USDJPY

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$499
  • Example: 100 pips change in USDJPY price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 160.82
  • Support 2: 160.70
  • Resistance 1: 161.08
  • Resistance 2: 161.22

Fundamental Analysis

  • USD/JPY has started to lose interest in long positions as traders fear intervention from the Bank of Japan. Yesterday, the currency closed down -0.03%. Currently, the currency is up +0.12% at 160.94.
  • During yesterday’s session, the currency touched 161.30. The Tokyo consumer price index came in at 2.3% year-on-year.
  • The currency’s loss of interest is explained by the rise in US Treasury yields, which reached 4.72% and 4.30% for the 2-year and 10-year, respectively.
  • The Japanese Finance Minister stressed the importance of the yen reflecting the stability and fundamentals of the country’s economy.
  • The currency remains in a resistance zone. The price is above its 200-day moving average. The RSI is at 63.17, near the overbought zone. The moving averages point to buying.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

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