SUMMARY

  • Investors are eagerly awaiting the extraordinary summit of eurozone leaders. The Eurogroup meeting continues.
  • GBPUSD corrected -0.49% yesterday as traders expect the US PCE to be worse than expected. The pound is currently up +0.06% against the dollar at 1.2629.
  • Tokyo’s core CPI is expected to increase by 2% y-o-y. The country’s industrial production is expected to grow +2% month-on-month.

 

Main events:

  • Spanish retail sales.
  • Bank of England Financial Stability Report
  • Eurogroup meeting
  • US GDP
  • New claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S.
  • Japan industrial production

EURUSD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$539
  • Example: 100 pips change in EURUSD price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 1,0676
  • Support 2: 1,0674
  • Resistance 1: 1,0681
  • Resistance 2: 1,0684

Fundamental Analysis

  • Investors are eagerly awaiting the extraordinary summit of eurozone leaders. The Eurogroup meeting continues. One of the main topics is the need to strengthen the EU’s military capability. Today we will have the statements of the ECB leaders.
  • EURUSD is currently up +0.09% to 1.0689. The currency is showing an attempt to rebound, which could take the price towards the resistance zone of 1.07200. The RSI is at 48.45, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. The moving averages are neutral.
  • Traders are also awaiting the US PCE report, which is the most studied macroeconomic data by the FED after inflation. The French election results are another important factor in the euro’s performance.
  • In the United States, GDP growth of +1.3% is expected for the first quarter of 2024. New jobless claims are expected to reach 236,000.

GBPUSD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$686
  • Example: 100 pips change in GBPUSD price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 1.2619
  • Support 2: 1.2610
  • Resistance 1: 1.2633
  • Resistance 2: 1.2638

Fundamental Analysis

  • GBPUSD corrected -0.49% yesterday as traders anticipated that the US PCE would be worse than expected. At the moment, the pound is up +0.06% against the dollar at 1.2629.
  • The currency is trying to overcome the current support at 1.2620. If the rebound is confirmed, the price could rise towards 1.2650. The RSI is at 41.20, in the neutral zone, which leaves room to gain a few more points. The moving averages indicate a downward trend.
  • According to analysts at UOB Group, the currency could fall below 1.2600. Political uncertainty in the UK could be one of the factors. Yesterday, one of the debates between Rishi Sunak and Labour candidate Sir Keir Starmer took place.
  • Japanese investment bank Nomura has broken a record by paying one of its UK bankers a $12 million bonus.
  • Traders are closely following the presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the United States.

USDJPY

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$499
  • Example: 100 pips change in USDJPY price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 160,36
  • Support 2: 160,22
  • Resistance 1: 160,68
  • Resistance 2: 160,86

Fundamental Analysis

  • Tokyo’s core CPI is expected to increase by 2% year-on-year. The country’s industrial production is expected to grow +2% month-on-month. The USDJPY closed yesterday up +0.69%. It is currently correcting -0.22% and trades at 160.44, holding at 38-year highs.
  • Traders are watching the currency’s current range. The price is above 160, which is the BOJ intervention ceiling, so it could correct sharply at any time. Meanwhile, the price remains above the 200-day moving average. The RSI is at 52, in the neutral zone. The moving averages are neutral.
  • According to stock analysts, it is unlikely that the Bank of Japan will intervene before Friday.
  • The new resistance levels are 161, 162, 164.87 and 178. The support levels to watch are 158.75, 157.82, 157.53 and 157.24.
  • Technically, the price remains in an uptrend.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

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