SUMMARY

  • The week begins with traders’ attention focused on statements by Bundesbank officials, who will discuss the economic outlook for Germany and the euro zone.
  • According to analysts at Danske Bank, the interest rate differential between Japan and the G10 countries should strengthen the yen throughout 2024.
  • The EURUSD managed to maintain its uptrend of the week, and is now defending the current resistance zone at 1.0779.

GOLD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 50
  • Units: 100
  • Margin requirement: USD$4,006
  • Example: USD$10 change in gold price = USD1000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 2011,18
  • Support 2: 2010,36
  • Resistance 1: 2012,98
  • Resistance 2: 2013,96

 

Fundamental Analysis

  • The week begins with traders’ attention focused on the statements of Bundesbank officials, who will discuss the economic outlook for Germany and the euro zone.
  • Gold has managed to recover several points after the correction to the 1,984 USD level. It is currently up 0.17% to USD 2,017 per troy ounce.
  • US Treasury yields continue to rise as investors increase the volume of their fixed income and gold purchases to mitigate the negative effect of inflation on the markets.
  • Inflation fell in the US, but not at the expected pace. Retail sales were also negative, so the Federal Reserve is considering bringing forward its interest rate cutting program.
  • The gold price is close to reaching the $2,020 resistance zone. If it does, and buying volume continues, the price will have three levels to break this week: $2,020, $2,030 and $2,040.

USDJPY

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$667
  • Example: movement of 100 pips = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 150,07
  • Support 2: 150,00
  • Resistance 1: 150,18
  • Resistance 2: 150,22

Fundamental Analysis

  • According to analysts at Danske Bank, the interest rate differential between Japan and the G10 countries should strengthen the yen throughout 2024.
  • Bearish analysts predict that the currency could fall to 140 and mark this level as the main support.
  • Analysts expect the G10 countries, with the exception of Japan, to start cutting interest rates from the second or third quarter of the year.
  • According to UBS analysts, the yen is likely to appreciate further before the Bank of Japan begins to normalize its monetary policy. For the time being, the Bank’s strategy has focused on stimulating investment through negative interest rates. However, the global environment and rapidly falling inflation are forcing the Bank to change its strategy.
  • The USDJPY is below the 40-day moving average, at the same level as the lower Bollinger band, which could lead to an increase in buying interest.

EURUSD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$1,071
  • Example: movement of 100 pips = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 1.0783
  • Support 2: 1.0780
  • Resistance 1: 1.0789
  • Resistance 2: 1.0792

Fundamental Analysis

  • EURUSD has managed to maintain its uptrend for the week, and is now defending the current resistance zone at 1.0779.
  • Wall Street remains closed today due to Presidents’ Day in the United States. As a result, volatility and trading volumes are likely to be lower.
  • EURUSD may react to the Bundesbank delegates’ statements. On Wednesday, we can expect high volatility in the currency following the European Central Bank’s statement on changes in monetary policy.
  • On Thursday, European Community members will present a full set of purchasing managers’ indices. Consolidated data from Germany and the Eurozone are among the most anticipated.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

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