SUMMARY

  • The price of gold (XAU/USD) has seen a strong rally in recent days, reaching a new all-time high above $2,300 on Friday.
  • Traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates in May to around 30% after the jobs report, although June remains the most likely scenario, at 80%.
  • Retail sales in the United States are expected to increase +0.4% month on month. Analysts believe that domestic demand is increasing, which has led to an increase in prices, in response to rising inflation.

 

Main events:

  • Eurozone industrial production
  • Retail sales in the United States
  • China’s annual GDP

GOLD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 100
  • Margin requirement: USD$2167
  • Example: movement of USD$10 = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 2349,69
  • Support 2: 2343,69
  • Resistance 1: 2360,44
  • Resistance 2: 2365,19

Fundamental Analysis

  • The price of gold (XAU/USD) has seen a strong rally in recent days, reaching a new all-time high above $2,300 on Friday.
  • The weakness of the US dollar, escalating geopolitical tensions and speculation over China’s purchase of gold have driven up the price of the precious metal. US inflation data will be key to the direction of the gold market.
  • The ECB will announce its monetary policy decision. A dovish stance could weaken the euro and benefit gold. Geopolitical developments and comments from Federal Reserve officials will also be important.
  • The price of gold extended its rise amid new dovish comments from central bankers. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told a Senate panel that the Fed was not far from being confident enough to cut rates.
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated that the ECB could lower rates in June. This comes as new projections show inflation will fall to 2% in 2025.

NASDAQ 100

Specifications

  • Leverage: 100
  • Units: 1
  • Margin requirement: USD$180
  • Example: movement of 100 points = $1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 18214,34
  • Support 2: 18197,92
  • Resistance 1: 18244,84
  • Resistance 2: 18258,92

Fundamental Analysis

  • Traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates in May to around 30% after the jobs report, although June remains the most likely scenario, at 80%.
  • According to Wallet Investor, the price of gold will remain at current levels without any sudden changes. In 2024, moderate growth is expected: XAUUSD will trade above $2,500.
  • Investors’ interest in gold suggests that they expect further corrections in stocks. Even more so after the increase in geopolitical tensions.
  • The Nasdaq 100 closed last week with a -1.65% correction. Currently, the index is up +0.28% and is trading at 18,230.
  • Investors are focused on financial results season. Big tech is on the radar, since the behavior of the indices depends on their results.

GBPUSD

Specifications

  • Leverage: 200
  • Units: 100,000
  • Margin requirement: USD$623
  • Example: 100 pips change in GBPUSD price = USD1,000 potential PL.
  • Support 1: 1,2456
  • Support 2: 1,2452
  • Resistance 1: 1,2464
  • Resistance 2: 1,2468

Fundamental Analysis

  • Retail sales in the United States are expected to increase +0.4% month on month. Analysts believe that domestic demand is increasing, which has led to an increase in prices, in response to rising inflation. Traders pay attention to the week’s macroeconomic data, which is essential to review the behavior of currencies.
  • China’s annual GDP is expected to grow by +4.8%. Analysts expect the Asian country’s economy to grow more than 7%. The above indicates an economic slowdown in the country.
  • The British pound against the dollar started the week at the same level as the 200-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The price is close to the lower Bollinger band, which could attract buyers’ attention.
  • Right now, GBPUSD is up +0.06% and is trading at 1.2458.

SOURCES

  • Thomson Reuters
  • Market watch
  • Bloomberg
  • Tradingview

 

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